Hello,

I have XM and enjoy Watercolors. If it is removed from the schedule, I will cancel my membership.

Jazz Queen

The only thing is that you have to look at the post-merger hierarchy and corporate philosophy.

When Sirius/XM CEO Mel Karmazin was running the Infinity radio cluster which became the CBS cluster shortly before he left all of their SJ stations were BA clients. Karmazin is a programmer who believes in proven hits and "familiarity". When he took over Sirius their playlists became much "safer" and tighter and reports in trade mags emphasized Sirius' reliance on music research and "familiarity". The Sirius execs are not one bit interested in innovation. Their bread and butter will be controversial talk and dirty DJs, music programming will be as it is, a lot of different formats but all delivered with trad. radio philosophy - tight research driven playlists.

Add to that the Sirius director of adult programming is a woman who programmed some of BA's flagship stations when they first took over and the Jazz Cafe PD is a former BA person. The belief system that you have to "apologize" for playing "jazz" by watering it down with lots of familiar pop crossovers is in full effect in that building. Lee Abrans, who provided the creative impetus for the original XM channels, left the bldg shortly after merger plans were announced. Sirius/XM announced that layoffs and cutbacks were coming.

I've never been able to listen to WaterColors for too long..too snoozy and traditionalist with their focus on only the mellow side of the genre and female personalities who do the sexy purr. I think that's because nobody in the SJ "in-group" realizes there are other ways to do it so they just default to the 1987 playbook - that it has to be mellow, relaxing, "sophisticated," about mood over song. Yes, they play more original instrumental music than any other corporate entity out there, but they are still not breaking any new ground. I always thought there needed to be a channel that covered the pop/rock instrumental leaning section of the vast amount of turf between "Watercolors" and "Beyond Jazz"

I would be very surprised if either of these channels make the cut...unless Opie and Anthony or Bubba The Love Sponge are hired to talk dirty between Boney and Koz songs.

Perhaps both will survive, however, if that is the case, then Jazz Cafe IMO should be renamed "Smooth AC."

I understand it is Sirius who bought out XM, however, why would the merged company drop a high-rated station in favor of a low-rated one? Despite Kat's claims, from the statstics it is pretty obvious that Watercolors does much better in ratings than Jazz Cafe. As I stated, their ranks are within the subscriber bases separately, not by both services combined. Watercolors is the 5th highest rated XM station, while Jazz Cafe is the 22nd highest rated Sirius station.

Remember Comcast's G4/TechTV fiasco? They merged the channels into one but with the low-rated G4 side dominating. That was a huge flop.

agghhhh! If I'm OK with anyone disagreeing with my opinion and offering another viewpoint, why does my name have to be personally used in a post for purposes of debate?

My opinion is my opinion, and of course, others can agree or disagree with me.

Since my name has been used in this thread after the original discussion, I feel like I am being forced to debate this topic - and I really don't want to.

I'm left with little choice but to debate something that I didn't feel I should have to debate.

I'll state my opinion in a separate post.... but please, I would appreciate not being dragged into any more personalized debate.

Thanks for this opportunity to explain the economic reality behind the statistics.

People will like what they like - and be disappointed if the format changes. Much like CD101 in NYC going to HD Radio. People are disappointed in the loss, but sales of HD have not increased dramatically.

I have not made a single statement about which service offers a better listening experience - but I have pointed out that the programming for both is not fresh or innovative for me.

http://www.orbitcast.com/archives/satellite-radio-subscribers-running-the-numbers.html



Sirius' subscriber base is growing .... XM's has levelled off. This enforces Management's thinking that the new programming is bringing in subscribers.

If you've subscribed for a multi-year contract, it doesn't matter whether you listen to the programming or turn it off .... they already have your money (or promotional dollars from your car maker).

It has been well publicized that most of Sirius' new subscribers signed up for Howard Stern. Why on earth would they listen to the Jazz Cafe when they can also listen to Bubba the Love Sponge? All Howard radio, 24 hours a day on Channel 100.

In addition to that, Sirius has the original MTV VJs hosting the all 80's station, Brady Bunch star Barry Williams and Good Times star JJ walker hosting the 70's channel - and similar personalities hosting their themed channels. That draws on the same age demographic that would tune into a Watercolors or a Jazz Cafe.

Meanwhile Watercolors still has human beings talking about music and mentioning songs and artists. Jazz Cafe has pre-recorded voice spots - all the "on air" folks were let go more than a year ago. There's no human touch, while the other Sirius channels have human beings like the MTV VJs.

Listeners like the human touchpoint, not the android-beamed-tracks and elevator like atmosphere. No secret there. That's why Jazz Cafe is lower in Sirius' ratings.

Statistics for each service is.... like going to the Democratic National Convention and polling the convention attendees about whether they are going to vote for Barack Obama. And then, the pollster turns around and goes to the Republican National Convention and asks who is going to vote for John McCain.

How does one compare the results? At this point in time, we couldn't predict who will be President. Polls do not tell the real story when the votes are added up.

The convention polls are 2 closed demographic pools, yielding predictable results. But if one convention has more attendees who answered the question for their candidate - that doesn't mean their candidate will be the next President.

That's been my point about the error of assuming stats prove that one channel is more popular than the other. Neither group of subscribers has had the opportunity to experience the other service - their choices are limited to their satellite service.

Statistically, the numbers are derived from closed demographic pools - and the programming for each service is different.

The numbers indicate that XM subscribers prefer Watercolors to other channels in that service, and that Sirius subscribers are actually listening to Stern instead of Jazz Cafe.

Which channel management chooses will depend upon how much $$$ they can bring in - and that means programming which will appeal to new subscribers.

Bottom line, I would not be surprised.... if both Watercolors & Jazz Cafe went away along with their cousin channels.

We already know that anything with the word "jazz" in it is the programmatic kiss of death. That's why it's evolving into Smooth A/C.

The Watercolors name might survive because it's inconspicuous and evokes a relaxing mood, but the jazz part of the programming will not make the cut. The real estate for other programming is too valuable.

Ohh... and Management will use the ratings to make the cut - in the same way that they let BA make programming decisions based upon limited testing and song recognition factor. It's that purple sofa argument again - if you only have purple sofas available - you'll pick purple even though you really wanted a green sofa.

People will accept the numbers rather than the underlying truth - it's all about making money - and money means bringing in new subscribers, not keeping the ones who are most likely locked into a multi-year subscription.

Sirius/XM or XM/Sirius - can only grow their profits by adding new subscribers.... and slashing costs.

In speaking with Sirius today (telemarketing call), I was told that the merger will be completed in late September.

At that time subscribers can elect new packages:

1. XM subscribers can convert to Sirius channels
2. Sirius subscribers can convert to XM channels
3. Users can select a new package of Sirius and XM channels

That means more of a reach for Howard Stern into a new installed base.

The packages will be offered like cable TV programming. Subscribers can select "blocks" to add onto their basic programming selection.

It will cost the subscribers more $$$ than current rates if they switch or select blocks.

More Howard, more $$$ !

Because one of them is in alignment with corporate philosophy and the other is not. Watercolors plays contemporary instrumental and while their approach is conservative they are still playing a lot of tracks that would be deemed "unfamiliar" by Karmazin and Co. simply because they are original instrumentals or by vocalists who do not have a track record at A/C or Urban A/C.

The assumption will be that if Watercolors goes away all of those listeners will shift to Jazz Cafe and not notice a difference between the two. Since satellite radio does draw a more active listenership than regular radio this may be not be true. This corp is also going on a cost-cutting binge so the presence of live personalities is a negative to them. Why write paychecks and pay benefits for the presence of human beings, especially in the case of Watercolors, human beings who know and care about the music and might actually question corporate music policies or want some input rather than a "straight by the numbers" approach.

Why would a corporation kill the quality elements of its content? C'mon. That happens every day.

of course this is all projection. Kind of like all those preseason fantasyfootball things I get. But after working for Cox, AM/FM, SFX,Chancellor and all those other corps it's educated projection. we'll see.